NIDA International Business Conference 2016
Bangkok, THAILAND
March 12, 2016

Economics, Policy, and Regional Development

Time: 14:15–15:45

Room: 401

Session Chair: Tatchawan Kanitpong, NIDA Business School

Paper Presentations:

Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potential in ASEAN+3: An Analysis of the Decision Support Model (DSM) Result
Ludo Cuyvers, University of Antwerp, Belgium
Ermie Steenkamp, North-West University, South Africa
Wilma Viviers, North-West University, South Africa
Martin Cameron, TRADE research advisory Pty Ltd, South Africa
Riaan Rossouw, North-West University, South Africa

Export promotion often leads to diminishing returns, and therefore it requires a clear focus and strategy. The Decision Support Model (DSM) is designed to analyse export opportunities in the world at large, ultimately providing export promotion agencies, exporters’ organisations and individual exporters with a list of product-country combinations that represent realistic export opportunities. In this paper, Thailand’s realistic export opportunities in the ASEAN+3 countries (ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which can be considered as the country’s ‘backyard’, are analysed. This is done by following the ‘data filtering procedure’ of a Decision Support Model in which macro-economic country performance, as well as imports, market access and import market concentration at product level are considered. The identified export opportunities are further investigated according to their potential export value and Thailand’s comparative advantage at product level, and the importing country’s market share and import market characteristics. Given the region’s deepening integration and Thailand’s clear export potential in the ASEAN+3 markets, we advocate that Thailand adopts a much more focused regional approach to formulating its export promotion policies and strategies, notably at product level, with a view to enhancing its competitive position in terms of increased exports.

Modeling Firm Competitiveness for Strategy Formulation
Muhittin Oral, Özyeğin University

This paper presents a process of modeling competitiveness at the firm level for strategy formulation purposes. The modeling process consists of four interactive components: managerial situation, conceptual model, formal model, and strategy. These four components are interacted through four sub-processes named, conceptualization, modeling, obtaining solution, and implementation. Although all the components and sub-processes will be discussed, the emphasis however will be more on managerial situation and conceptual model within the context of firm competition. The industrial competitiveness model developed using the proposed modeling process will be explained and how it can be used in SWOT analysis, building decision support system, marketing strategy, likely market share estimation, and technology selection.

Evidence of J-Curve between ASEAN Economic Community
Tatchawan Kanitpong, NIDA Business School
Nisit Phanthamit, Chiang Mai University

The propose of this paper is to investigate the short run (J-curve) and long run relationship of exchange rate to trade balance between Thailand and ASEAN countries; Singapore, Malaysia Philippine, and Indonesia. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint was adopted during the 13th ASEAN summit in 2007 to serve as a master plan for the establishment of AEC 2015. The arrival of January 2016, the official effective date had been started which mean the member of AEC will trade with each other at zero duty on most of their goods. Therefore, one important factor which will effect trade balance between countries will fall to the fluctuation of exchange rate. By Marshall-Learner condition, the depreciation leads to an increase in trade balance in the long run if sum of value of import and export demand elasticity exceed one. The depreciation of currency would make domestic goods cheaper comparing to foreign goods, thus make export good more competitive. On another hand, depreciation on domestic currency would make import goods more expensive compared to local goods, therefore, country would import less. However, the amount of export and import may not response immediately from the time of depreciation. Thus, trade balance may be worsen first and improve some time later. This is called J-Curve phenomenon.

Localizing the Globalization: A Case Study with Special Reference to Village Development Council in India Pending confirmation due to duplicate submission
Novela Johaney Murmu, Jharkhand State Livelihood Promotion Society
Niranjan Sahoo, Xavier Institute of Social Service

Gram Sabha is the fulcrum of the entire Panchayati Raj System in India as it enables each and every voter of village to participate in decision making at local level. In contract nothing worthwhile happen in this direction due to lack of awareness among villagers and indifferent attitudes of village heads and other officials. It has been also noted from time to time that citizens’ participation in the Gram Sabha is not satisfactory and wherever they have participated the outcomes are impressive because it creates pressure on the functioning of Panchayat for the betterment of the village. The goal of sustainable growth cannot be achieved without the effective participation of local people in the Panchayati Raj Institutions.